Finland's Security Policy Transformation after Russia's 2022 Invasion: Continuity and Change on the Path to NATO Accession
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33019/.v8i1.466Keywords:
Finland's NATO Accession, Military non-alignment, National interest, Regional Security Complex Theory, Russia-Ukraine WarAbstract
This article explains how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 influenced Finland's accession to NATO. Existing studies illuminate border geopolitics, historical memory, or public opinion, but give less attention to how these factors converged in a completed policy change. Using Regional Security Complex Theory and the concept of national interest, the article distinguishes long-term enabling conditions, the deterioration of Northern European security after 2014, and the invasion as an immediate trigger. It applies a qualitative case-study design based on official Finnish and NATO documents, polling data, scholarly literature, and reputable media used for chronology. The findings show that the invasion did not cause an abrupt rupture with Finland's prior security policy. It decisively accelerated a longer transformation in military non-alignment by altering how Finnish political actors and much of the public interpreted regional threat, sovereignty, and the value of treaty-based collective defence. NATO accession was therefore a contingent political choice made under changed security conditions, rather than an automatic response to geography or Russian power.
Downloads
References
Åtland, K. (2016). North European security after the Ukraine conflict. Defense & Security Analysis, 32(2), 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2016.1160484
Bellinger, J. B. I. (2022, February 28). How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates international law. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-russias-invasion-ukraine-violates-international-law
Bond, I., & Scazzieri, L. (2022). The EU, NATO and European security in a time of war. Centre for European Reform. https://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/pbrief_IB_LS_nato_5aug22.pdf
Braw, E. (2021, December 19). What Ukraine can learn from Finland. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/19/ukraine-russia-finland-winter-war-defense/
Buzan, B., & Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511491252
Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2018). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (5th edn). SAGE Publications.
Creswell, J. W., & Poth, C. N. (2024). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches (5th edn). SAGE Publications.
Denzin, N. K., & Lincoln, Y. S. (Eds). (2018). The SAGE Handbook of Qualitative Research (5th edn). SAGE. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/the-sage-handbook-of-qualitative-research/book242504
Dyner, A. M. (2018, January 15). Russia strengthens military presence in Kaliningrad. Polish Institute of International Affairs. https://pism.pl/publications/Russia_Strengthens_Military_Presence_in_Kaliningrad
Finnish Government. (2022a, March 15). Speech delivered by Prime Minister Sanna Marin at Parliament’s topical debate on 15 March 2022. https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/10616/speech-delivered-by-prime-minister-sanna-marin-at-parliament-s-topical-debate-on-15-march-2022
Finnish Government. (2022b, April 13). Government report on changes in the security environment. https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/items/bff289ae-1334-45b4-97bb-492332fe5563
Finnish Government. (2022c, May 12). Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland’s NATO membership. https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/10616/joint-statement-by-the-president-of-the-republic-and-prime-minister-of-finland-on-finland-s-nato-membership
Finnish Government. (2022d, May 13). Report on Finland’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/publications/publication?pubid=URN:NBN:fi-fe2022051335120
Forsberg, T. (2024). Bottom-up foreign policy? Finland, NATO and public opinion. Scandinavian Political Studies, 47(3), 283–307. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9477.12273
Hannikainen, L. (2020). Finland’s Continuation War (1941–1944): War of aggression or defence? War of alliance or separate war? Baltic Yearbook of International Law Online, 17(1), 77–121. https://doi.org/10.1163/22115897_01701_006
Kansikas, S. (2019). Dismantling the Soviet security system: Soviet-Finnish negotiations on ending their friendship agreement, 1989–91. The International History Review, 41(1), 83–104. https://doi.org/10.1080/07075332.2017.1398177
Kelly, R. E. (2007). Security Theory in the ‘New Regionalism’. International Studies Review, 9(2), 197–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2007.00671.x
Lake, D. A., & Morgan, P. M. (Eds). (1997). Regional orders: Building security in a new world. Pennsylvania State University Press.
Lemke, D. (2022). Regions of war and peace. Cambridge University Press.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1978). Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace (5th edn). Knopf.
NATO. (2023, April 4). Finland joins NATO as 31st Ally. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2023/04/04/finland-joins-nato-as-31st-ally
NATO. (2025, November 12). Collective defence and Article 5. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/collective-defence-and-article-5
Petersen, P. A. (1991). Scandinavia and the “Finlandization” of Soviet security. Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science, 38(1), 60–74. https://doi.org/10.2307/1173813
President of the Republic of Finland. (2022, February 24). The President and the Prime Minister strongly condemn the military measures Russia has started in Ukraine. https://www.presidentti.fi/niinisto/en/news/finland-strongly-condemns-the-military-measures-russia/
Prokkola, E.-K., & Ridanpää, J. (2022). New geopolitics and the Finnish-Russian border as a marker of territoriality. Political Geography, 99, 102701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102701
Reuters. (2022, January 20). Finland’s PM says NATO membership is ‘very unlikely’ in her current term. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/
Roth, A. (2022, June 29). Putin issues fresh warning to Finland and Sweden on installing Nato infrastructure. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/russia-condemns-nato-invitation-finland-sweden
Suchoples, J. (2023). In the shadow of the eastern neighbour: Finland in the security policy of Russia and the Soviet Union from Peter the Great to contemporary times. Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs, 26(4), 9–38. https://doi.org/10.33067/SE.4.2022.1
Walt, S. M. (1987). The origins of alliances. Cornell University Press.
Weckman, A. (2023). Public opinion and NATO: How different security environments influence the support for NATO in Finland. Nordic Review of International Studies, 1(1), 5–25.
Yeasmin, S., & Rahman, K. F. (2012). ‘Triangulation’ research method as the tool of social science research. BUP Journal, 1(1), 154–163.
Yin, R. K. (2018). Case Study Research and Applications: Design and Methods (6th edn). SAGE Publications.
Yle. (2022a, February 28). For first time, Yle poll shows majority support for Finnish NATO membership. https://yle.fi/a/3-12337202
Yle. (2022b, March 14). Yle poll: Support for NATO membership hits record high. https://yle.fi/a/3-12357832
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ganjar Widhiyoga, Mohammad Alvinsyah, Agung Yudhistira Nugroho
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Atribusi-Non Commercial-Share Alike (CC BY-NC-SA).
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Every publication (printed/electronic) are open access for educational purposes, research, and library. Other than the aims mentioned above, the editorial board is not responsible for copyright violation.
